And Now the Good News (part 2)

Part 1 addressed the compelling issue of world hunger, and the significant strides being made worldwide. Today, in Part 2, we explore an equally dynamic topic: Is humankind progressing? Today’s column provides excerpts from a recent debate held among four of the world’s brightest minds.

Is humankind progressing? Do man’s best days lie ahead?

A one-hour news feed from CNN (nearly every hour of the day) might convince you otherwise. It’s the downside of a 24/7 news cycle – we endure one thousand impressions of the latest crime, tragedy or killing – be it human or weather-related – and, honestly, it can’t help but cloud our perspective.

Yet a quick look back, to nearly any time in history, assures us that every generation experiences its own unique set of worries and fears. Why would this time in history be any different?

That was the issue explored this past fall at the Munk Debates*, a series of semi-annual debates vetting issues of substance (prior topics included: The West vs. Russia, Gender in the 21st Century, North American Economy, Religion, Healthcare, Climate Change and Humanitarian Intervention).

Four authors took the debate floor – on the pro side, Harvard Professor Steven Pinker and House of Lords member Matt Ridley built a compelling case that man’s best days do indeed lie ahead. Opposing them, journalist Malcolm Gladwell and public philosopher Alain de Botton made their claim that today’s threats (e.g., nuclear proliferation, climate change, et al) are indeed of a different order.

Clear from debate reviews was that Pinker – armed with facts and figures – carried the day. Pinker opens with two memorable lines: “Journalists report plane crashes, not planes that take off,” then adds: “As long as bad things haven’t vanished from the earth altogether, there will always be enough of them to fill the news.” His compelling arguments rested on 10 elements that revealed, with little hyperbole, that humankind is indeed progressing. Following are Pinker’s 10 points, drawn from the transcript of the Munk Debates:

1. Life itself: “A century and a half ago, the human lifespan was 30 years. Today is it 70 and it shows no signs of levelling off.”

2. Health: “Two of the greatest sources of misery in human existence [smallpox and cattle plague] have been eradicated forever. The same will soon be true for polio and guinea worm and we are currently decimating hookworm, malaria, filariasis, measles, rubella and yaws.”

3. Prosperity: “Two centuries ago eighty-five percent of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty. Today, that’s down to ten percent and, according to the UN, by 2030, it could be zero.”

4. Peace: “Globally, the annual death rate from wars has been in bumpy decline, from 300 per 100,000 during World War II, to 22 in the 1950s, 9 in the ‘70s, 5 in the ‘80s, 1.5 in the ‘90s and 0.2 in the ‘00s. Even the horrific civil war in Syria has only budged the numbers back up to where they were in 2000.”

5. Safety: “Global rates of violent crime are falling in many places precipitously. The world’s leading criminologists have calculated that, within thirty years, we can cut the global rate of homicide in half.”

6. Freedom: “More than sixty percent of the world’s population now lives in open societies, the highest percentage ever.”

7. Knowledge: “In 1820, seventeen percent of people had a basic education. Today, eighty-two percent do and the percentage is rapidly heading to a hundred.”

8. Human Rights: “Ongoing global campaigns have targeted child labour, capital punishment, human trafficking, violence against women, female genital mutilation, and the criminalization of homosexuality. Each has made measureable inroads and, if history is a guide, these barbaric customs will go the way of human sacrifice, cannibalism, infanticide, chattel slavery, heretic burning, torture executions, public hangings, debt bondage, dueling, harems, eunuchs, freak shows, foot binding, laughing at the insane, and the designated goon in hockey.”

9. Gender Equity: “Global data show that woman are getting better educated, marrying later, earning more, and in more positions of power and influence.”

10. Intelligence: “In every country, IQ has been rising by three points a decade.”

* The 90-minute debates began in 2008 and are a charitable initiative of the Aurea Foundation co-founders Peter and Melanie Munk. Last month’s debate, on humankind, was held at the Roy Thomson Hall in Toronto, in front of an audience of 3,000. TV viewers also looked on.

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