Peak hurricane season begins
Hurricane seasons come and go, but forecasts suggest that 2026 may be one of the years the Atlantic lets us off easy.
Maritime meteorologist and Cainhoy resident Shea Gibson predicts the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be below average, in accordance with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecast, which gives "a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season."
El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, which Gibson emphasizes is a "game changer," as it tends to suppress tropical cyclone activity across the Atlantic Basin.
Although El Niño remains one of the biggest factors, other conditions also contribute to seasonal predictions and the potential for storm development.
"Other factors would include strong upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic and an increased amount of Saharan dust aloft off the coast of Africa, spanning across the main development region," Gibson said.
Gibson said Daniel Island and Clements Ferry residents are in a fairly resilient location, tucked well inside Charleston Harbor.
"There's some elevation to the land versus downtown, which is right at sea level, so there's decent resiliency to flooding from both storm surge and heavy rainfall," Gibson said.
Although the area's elevation and location offer some protection from coastal flooding, Gibson said other storm-related hazards may pose a greater threat.
"I would say wind damage and power outages (are threats) – things that are debilitating in nature and inhibit movement around the island, such as downed trees. There are also some pockets that do flood during heavy rains," Gibson said.
In the event of a storm, residents should be prepared for tree damage, power outages and localized flooding.
Gibson emphasized that the first precaution residents should take – even before a storm is forecast – is making sure their hurricane kits are stocked and ready with enough supplies to last through an extended power outage, including a supply of nonperishable food.
"That's the key right there, having the hurricane kits updated. Another thing to do now, rather than wait until September, when the peak of hurricane season is, is to check with your insurance company to make sure your policy is up to date and covers anything that is storm-related," Gibson said.
Gibson said this year's forecast gives him confidence that hurricane activity will be lower than in recent years.
"You still could get a curveball that slips through, and you get hit with a major hurricane, but my confidence is higher in seeing less overall activity in our area," Gibson said.